The Beetle Challenge: An Overview of the Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic and its Implications 

9. Facilitating Community Adjustment to Fall Down

The large-scale salvage of dead and susceptible trees in infested areas will produce a ‘boom’ in the BC economy especially in towns and cities in the interior over the next decade. Unfortunately, the timber supply uplift will be followed by significant declines in harvest levels, posing grave challenges to these forest-dependent communities in the interior.

• BC MPB Action Plan Objective #1: Ensure long-term economic sustainability for affected communities

The impact on communities will vary significantly depending on their dependence on the traditional forest sector and the severity of the infestation in their area. At present, there is relatively little available analysis of the economic and social implications of the epidemic. This section includes some figures that provide some indication of the magnitude of the falldown challenge. Table 1 presents an estimate of the magnitude of post-beetle uplift harvest levels, as a per cent of pre-uplift levels. The impact in the Quesnel Timber Supply Area and the Vanderhoof Forest District are particularly dramatic.

Table 1 :AAC Uplift Timber Supply Analysis (m³/yr)

¹Timber supply analysis in the Prince George TSA was divided into districts by the Chief Forester to reflect the fact that attack patterns vary by district. Since the AAC is determined at TSA not district level the Pre-Uplift and Current Uplift figures are for entire TSA.

²Figures reflect alternative timber supply projections based on rate of pine mortality forecasted for 2010 by the Provincial Level Projection of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak or see Table 1 in TSA Determinations

³Figures reflect second sensitivity analysis which assumes beetle infestation expands in similar pattern to infestation elsewhere in province and management intervention is ineffective

Currently, forestry contributes to nearly 30 per cent of the direct and indirect income of many affected communities. Table 2 depicts forest dependence in four timber supply areas.

Table 2: Community Dependence on Forest Sector for Income and Employment¹

¹Figures extracted from TSA Analysis Reports and based on 1996 Census

The only available economic modeling of economic impacts available at this time is a CFS report on two communities in the Northern Interior Region, the Nadina Forest Disrict and the Prince George TSA (see Table 3). The report estimates that any negative impact on forestry will have a negative impact on all other sectors, especially on retail and service sectors. The research indicates that interior communities will experience significant drops in pre-uplift employment, revenue and income figures after the AAC fall down in 10-15 years.

Table 3: Expected impact of AAC fall down on baseline figures

* all figures represent reduction from pre-uplift baseline figures

Although employment losses may be mitigated by growth in other sectors such as tourism and agriculture, such growth would be unable to fully compensate for losses in labour income as these sectors traditionally pay lower wages and create proportionately more part-time and seasonal work.

To assist in developing strategies for community diversification and adjustment, the BC MPB Action Plan will concentrate government efforts on three areas:

• Accelerate the development of oil and gas and mining industries
• Encourage value-added and innovative forest products businesses
• Expand tourism and agricultural sectors

Beyond economic diversification, the provincial government is also providing funding to several community groups:

• BC Government grants $50 million in funding for the Northern Development Initiative (MOF)

• BC Government grants $800,000 to the Cariboo-Chilcotin Beetle Action Coalition (MOF)

Internet Resources:

• CFS Research: Assessing Economic Impacts

• Patriquin, M.N.; Heckbert, S.; Nickerson, C.; Spence, M.M.; White, W.A. (2005). Regional economic implications of the mountain pine beetle infestation in the northern interior of British Columbia. (CFS)

HOME PAGE: The Beetle Challenge

NEXT PAGE

__________________________________________________________________

To comment on this website, or suggest additional resources, please contact: George Hoberg.